Road to the Draft…Part Nine – Cornerbacks
One of the primary appeals for teams running the Cover-2 scheme is that it lessens the need for true, man-to-man, “shutdown” cornerbacks. In Tampa, they got by with Ronde Barber and Brian Kelly—good players, but they were never reminding anyone of Deion Sanders or Champ Bailey. Corners instead have to be able to tackle well, read quarterbacks, and force turnovers.
Virtually unnoticed, Charles Tillman has ably manned one of the corner spots for the Bears for the better part of a decade. He had one of his best seasons in 2010, and stayed healthy for the first time in a few years. However, he is getting older, slower, and more injury prone, and the need is here to find a capable successor. At the other corner, Zack Bowman lasted all of about 5 quarters as a starter in 2010. Maybe it was complacency, maybe an undisclosed injury—but he made enough bad plays for one season in the first game versus the Lions. Tim Jennings, picked up off of the Colts’ scrap heap, started the remainder of the season in Bowman’s spot, and was not terrible—but he is very small and is more suited to being a backup than a true starter in the NFL. DJ Moore had a good season in his first as nickleback; but again, his size may limit him from being anything more than that. Josh Moore was drafted in the fourth round in 2010, and was essentially redshirted while looking to improve on the World Record for Fewest Bench Presses at the NFL Combine. Other than Defensive Tackle and Offensive Line, this is probably the biggest position of need for the Bears in the upcoming draft. Here are the guys available:
1st Round: Patrick Peterson (LSU); Prince Amukamara (Nebraska); Jimmy Smith (Colorado); Brandon Harris (Miami); Aaron Williams (Texas).
2nd Round: Ras-I Dowling (Virginia); Davon House (New Mexico State); Chimdi Chekwa (Ohio State); Curtis Brown (Texas); Brandon Burton (Utah).
3rd Round: Shareece Wright (USC); Marcus Gilchrist (Clemson); Johnny Patrick (Louisville); Jalil Brown (Colorado).
4th Round: Curtis Marsh (Utah State); Brandon Hogan (West Virginia); Buster Skrine (Chattanooga); Rashad Carmichael (Virgina Tech).
5th Round: Cortez Allen (Citadel); Anthony Gaitor (FIU); Chykie Brown (Texas).
6th-7th Rounds: Chris L. Rucker (Michigan State): Ryan Jones (NW Missouri State); DeMarcus Van Dyke (Miami); Kendric Burney (North Carolina).
The good thing about this draft is that it is loaded with bigger, physical, zone-type cornerbacks. It is highly doubtful that Peterson, Amukamara, or Jimmy Smith will still be on the board at #29 for the Bears. However, second-rounders like Dowling and House are big, fast, and physical—and could no doubt step in and play right away. Getting a guy that can step in and play right away could open the door for Charles Tillman to make a move to Free Safety—not only extending Tillman’s career—but teaming him with Chris Harris could give us the most impressive safety combos we have had here in some years. It is more likely that the Bears will address needs on both lines in the early rounds, and try to pick up one or two late-round prospects. Rucker and Burney had off-field issues while in school; but both had 1st-round grades as recently as 2009. Van Dyke was not a star at Miami; but he is taller and ran a sub-4.3 40 at the combine.
Fact is, the presence of Stafford/Megatron/Pettigrew in Detroit; and Rodgers/Jennings/Driver/Nelson/Finley in Green Bay dictates our need for cornerback depth.
Road to the Draft…Part Eight – Safeties
This is a position that has been much maligned for the past few seasons; in fact, it seems that we haven’t had a pair of reliable safeties since the days of Mike Brown and Tony Parrish early in the decade. Last season, Danieal Manning was moved to SS, Chris Harris was brought back from the Panthers to play FS, and Major Wright was drafted in the 3rd round of the draft to spell both of those guys and develop into a starter. Manning and Harris played solidly, if not spectacularly. Wright showed flashes in the preseason, but was plagued by injuries. And when he was in there; he was rarely around the ball.
Going into this season, Harris will return to start at one safety spot. Manning turned down a contract extension offered by the Bears; he probably will not be back. reserves Craig Steltz and Josh Bullocks do not appear to be part of the team’s long-term plans. So that leaves Major Wright to start at the other safety spot, if by nothing else than the process of elimination. Veteran Free Agents such as OJ Atogwe and Bob Sanders have been passed over by the Bears, giving the indication that they feel good going into this season with Harris and Wright as the starters; or that the team has a guy targeted in the draft. So here are the prospects, as always, click on the name for a scouting video/report:
1st Round: None.
2nd Round: Rahim Moore (UCLA); Quinton Carter (Oklahoma).
3rd Round: DeAndre McDaniel (Clemson); Tyler Sash (Iowa); Chris Conte (California); Ahmad Black (Florida).
4th Round: Robert Sands (West Virginia); DaNorris Searcy (North Carolina); Chris Culliver (South Carolina);
5th Round: Jaiqwan Jarrett (Temple); Jeron Johnson (Boise State); Deunta Williams (North Carolina); Shiloh Keo (Idaho).
6th-7th Rounds: Jerrard Tarrant (Georgia Tech); Joe Lefeged (Rutgers); Mistral Raymond (South Florida); Jermale Hines (Ohio State); Nate Williams (Washington); Eric Hagg (Nebraska); Dom DiCicco (Pittsburgh).
I am not sure that the Bears spend a first or second day pick on this position; there is enough value at other positions of greater need that should be available then. But they should spend a third day pick on some depth and someone to help on special teams. Culliver, who should be available in the fourth round has a 40-time that really jumps out at you; he also has experience playing CB and FS in college—so you know he can matchup coverage-wise with slot WRs and TEs. Ahmad Black might slip into the third day because of a slow 40-time at his pro day; but he is a guy who could step right in and star on special teams and is a perfect match for a cover-2 safety, as far as his skill-set goes. If they Bears do not draft a safety at all; expect them to try to keep Steltz or Bullocks for depth.
Road to the Draft…Part Seven – Running Backs
Again, from the outside this would not stand out as a position of immediate need for the Bears. But Garrett Wolfe is a free-agent and I expect (HOPE) that he will not be re-signed. Matt Forte is in the final year of his rookie contract, and the Bears may not be in a position to out-bid another team for him in 2012. And Chester Taylor averaged 2 yards per carry after signing the big free-agent deal to come over from the Vikings. Harvey Unga was taken in the supplemental draft last season, and should push for carries this upcoming season—but he looks like a #2 Rb in this league, at best. So the Bears could be looking for a RB in the upcoming draft as a) a replacement for Chester Taylor; and b) insurance should Forte not be re-signable in 2012. Here are the prospects (Click on the name to see a scouting report):
1st Round: Mark Ingram (Alabama); Mikel Leshoure (Illinois).
2nd Round: Ryan Williams (Virginia Tech); DeMarco Murray (Oklahoma); Daniel Thomas (Kansas State).
3rd Round: Kendall Hunter (Oklahoma State); Jordan Todman (Connecticut); Shane Vereen (California).
4th Round: Taiwan Jones (Eastern Washington); Delone Carter (Syracuse); Jacquizz Rodgers (Oregon State); Jamie Harper (Clemson).
5th Round: Roy Helu (Nebraska); Alex Green (Hawaii); Derrick Locke (Kentucky).
6th Round: Bilal Powel (Louisville); Stevan Ridley (LSU); Darel Scott (Maryland).
7th Round: Evan Royster (Penn State); Dion Lewis (Pittsburgh); Noel Devine (West Virginia).
I think alot of what the Bears do in this draft at RB will be dependent upon how optimistic they are about signing Forte to a long-term deal in the near future. If they feel confident they can lock Forte up, with Unga in the fold to handle the big-back duties, I could see the Bears taking a flyer in the later rounds on a smaller, faster back-Like Taiwan Jones, Derrick Locke, or Noel Devine. If they have concerns about re-signing Forte, it may motivate the team to look hard at an all-purpose back like Todman or Vereen in the 3rd or 4th rounds. The problem I see with most of the early-round backs (Ingram, R. Williams, Murray) is that they all have been injured at times through college. Another guy to keep an eye on is Dion Lewis, who was being called the next Emmitt Smith after leading the NCAA in rushing as a true freshman, but has fallen off the map the last two seasons. You do not lead the NCAA in rushing yards at a BCS conference school as a freshman without having some talent, so he maybe worth a flyer in the 7th round, if he still there.
Road to the Draft…Part Six – Linebackers
From the outside, one might say that the Bears are in a better place at the linebacker spot than any other position on the team. MLB Brian Urlacher and OLB Lance Briggs have played together now for 8 seasons; they are both perennial Pro Bowlers, and both fit exactly what you need from a linebacker in a Cover-2 defense—fast in pursuit, solid tacklers, and always going for the ball.
The problem for the Bears is that when you look at the depth chart, the only other player with NFL game-experience is Brian Iwuh, who played a couple games in relief of Briggs. The other LBs currently on the roster? Chris Johnson from South Dakota State, and Patrick Trahan from Mississippi. Have you ever heard of either of those guys? ME EITHER. In addition, Briggs will be 30 and Urlacher 33 at the start of the season; and while they have been relatively-speaking pretty durable, they will not play forever. While we might re-sign Nick Roach, Pisa Tinoisamoa, or Rod Wilson to fill the void at SLB next season, we desperately need an infusion of depth at LB.
One thing that does worry me about the idea of drafting LBs is that Jerry Angelo and Lovie Smith have not been very good at it. Since stealing Briggs in the third round in 2003, here are the LBs that Angelo and Smith have picked: Joe Odom (Purdue); Leon Joe (Maryland); Jamar Williams (Arizona State); Michael Okwo (Stanford); Joey Larocque (Oregon State); Marcus Freeman (Ohio State). Two problems I see with the philosophy here are that a) the Bears have usually been unwilling to invest anything higher than a 4th round pick on a linebacker; and b) when they do—Okwo and Williams—they seem to pass over the better overall LB prospect to take a guy who might fit the Cover-2 better. Keep in mind that when you look at Urlacher, he is not a guy who would have EVER been drafted to play in thid defense—but he has done okay for himself, right?
MY POINT—A GOOD LINEBACKER CAN PLAY IN ANY SYSTEM.
Anyway, on with the prospects. We will leave out the college DEs who are switching to 3-4 OLBs. Click on the player name to link to his draft scouting report:
OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS
1st Round: Von Miller (Texas A&M); Akeem Ayers (UCLA).
2nd Round: Bruce Carter (North Carolina).
3rd Round: Mason Foster (Washington); Lawrence Wilson (Connecticut);
4th Round: KJ Wright (Mississippi State); Ross Homan (Ohio State).
5th Round: Brian Rolle (Ohio State); Adrian Moten (Maryland); Doug Hogue (Syracuse).
6th-7th Rounds: Mark Herzlich (Boston College); Scott Lutrus (Connecticut); JT Thomas (West Virginia); Jabara Williams (Stephen F Austin); Eric Gordon (Michigan State); Michael Morgan (USC); Malcolm Smith (USC); Jacquain Williams (USF).
INSIDE LINEBACKERS
1st Round: Martez Wilson (Illinois).
2nd Round: Quan Sturdivant (North Carolina).
3rd Round: Greg Jones (Michigan State).
4th Round: Colin McCarthy (Miami); Kelvin Sheppard (LSU); Nate Irving (North Carolina State).
5th Round: Casey Matthews (Oregon); Josh Bynes (Auburn).
6th-7th Round: Mike Mohamed (California); Chris White (Mississippi State); Mario Harvey (Marshall); Jeff Tarpinian (Iowa); Kendall Smith (Florida State); Cobrani MIxon (Kent State).
The Bears typically look for linebackers who can a)fly to the ball; b)tackle well; and c) play on special teams. Unless the unthinkable happens, and Von Miller or Martez Wilson fall to us at the end of the first round, do not expect the Bears to address the strongside linebacker position or depth at linebacker in general until the 4th round or later.
At OLB, guys who intrigue me for the third day of the draft are Adrian Moten & Doug Hogue as 4th or 5th rounders; and Malcolm Smith and Jacquain Williams in the 6th or 7th rounds. At MLB, I do expect the Bears to draft a ‘measurables’ guy to perhaps groom as Urlacher’s replacement on the third day—Colin McCarthy in the 4th round, or Mario Harvey and Cobrani MIxon in the 6th or 7th rounds. All of these guys could be special teams dynamos from day one; and in the case of Martez Wilson, Adrian Moten, and Colin McCarthy, they could even have a chance to win the strongside LB job as a rookie.
Road to the Draft…Part Five – Wide Receivers
I think over the last 2-3 years, we as Bears fans have seen what happens when you do not have wide receivers that with Division I, major college-level coaching. Of their top 4 wideouts, you have Johnny Knox, a speedster from a Division-2 school; Devin Hester, a college cornerback/kick returner who, up until three years ago, had never played Wide Receiver at ANY level—not even high school; and Rashied Davis, a converted cornerback.
What we have learned, as we should have known from watching all-time greats like Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, and Marvin Harrison—is that there is alot more to being an NFL-level Wide Receiver than how fast you can run down the field. In fact, of the WRs that finished in the Top 20 in Receiving Yards last season, only 2 (DeSean Jackson and Mike Wallace) are guys who rely on deep speed. To be a great WR, you have to be able to read coverages and use leverage and run crisp routes and have great hands. When you take those factors into consideration, its no wonder that by the end of last season, the WR that Jay Cutler trusted most was Earl Bennett—the ONLY Bears’ WR to play the position or Wide Receiver at a Division 1 College. So it is extremely important that the Bears come out of this draft with at least one receiver with polished receiver skills.
The conundrum in this draft is that you have 2 GREAT prospects—Julio Jones and AJ Green—who seem like can’t-miss guys. The only problem is that they should be LONG GONE by the time the Bears draft at the end of the 1st round. You have one other guy, Jonathan Baldwin of Pitt, who alot of people have going at the end of the first round; but what I saw of him this season did not really impress me enough to think he warrants consideration in the first round of the draft. All of the other WR prospects have 3rd-round or worse grades. In Mike Martz’s offense, you place a premium on quickness and route-running over speed. The Bears also desperately need a guy who can beat press coverage and be physical on those short slants when you need to convert a third or fourth-and-short. Here are the prospect rankings, courtesy of CBS DraftScout. Click on the player’s name to be taken to a link for their scouting report/video.
1st Round: AJ Green (Georgia); Julio Jones (Alabama).
2nd Round: Torrey Smith (Maryland); Jonathan Baldwin (Pittsburgh).
3rd Round: Jerrel Jernigan (Troy); Leonard Hankerson (Miami); Randall Cobb (Kentucky); Titus Young (Boise State).
4th Round: Edmund Gates (Abilene Christian); Greg Little (North Carolina); Niles Paul (Nebraska); Tandon Doss (Indiana); Terrence Toliver (LSU).
5th Round: Greg Salas (Hawaii); Ronald Johnson (USC); Denarius Moore (Tennessee); Austin Pettis (Boise State); Jeremy Kerley (TCU).
6th-7th Rounds: Vincent Brown (SD State); Ryan Whalen (Stanford); Dane Sanzenbacher (Ohio State); Dwayne Harris (East Carolina); Tori Gurley (South Carolina); Jeff Maehl (Oregon); Darvin Adams (Auburn).
Unless God smiles upon the Bears, and Aj Green or Julio Jones fall to us in the first round; I would avoid drafting a WR until the third or fourth rounds. Jernigan and Young are intriguing to me at that point. The guys I am most enamored with are:
-Greg Little, who should be available in the late third or early fourth round. You can’t teach 6-3, 231 pounds, that runs a 4.4-49 yard dash and benches 225 lbs 27 TIMES.
-Niles Paul, for the same reasons as Little, ran a little faster than Little at the combine, but is a little smaller at 6-1, 220.
Both these guys could fill the jam-beating, possession-type, physical run after the catch WR role the Bears have been lacking.
In the later rounds, guys like Ryan Whalen and Tori Gurley could fill that role for us.
Another guy not on list who I will watch is Armon Binns from Cincinnati. He could have come out last year and been a 2nd or 3rd rounder. But he stayed in school, and struggled after losing his coach Brian Kelly and QB Tony Pike. He is 6-3, 210, and ran a respectable sub-4.5 40 yard dash.
Road to the Draft…Part Four-Defensive Ends
On first glance, most would not consider this a need position for the Bears, with the success of signing Julius Peppers last year, and the success of first-year, full-time starter Israel Idonije last year. However, there are some reasons to think the Bears would draft a defensive end early in this draft. Firstly, the success of the cover-2 scheme the Bears run is predicated on being able to get after the QB. From Simeon Rice to Leonard Little to Dwight Freeney, a DE that can get around the edge is paramount. Secondly, with a gaping hole at the 3-technique tackle left by Tommie Harris’ departure, coupled with Israel Idonije and Henry Melton’s experience at the DT position, it makes sense that if a better DE prospect is available than at DT, you draft the DE and move Idonije and/or Melton back inside. Thirdly, while Peppers and Idonije played well last year, they are both on the other side of thirty, and we did not get to see enough of Corey Wootton to know if he is a long-term answer. So here are the prospects, as ranked by CBS draft Scout—remember, we only list the DEs who fit our scheme—no 5-technique DEs—and as always, click on the player’s name to link to a full scouting report:
1st Round: Robert Quinn (North Carolina); Da’ Quan Bowers (Clemson); Cameron Jordan (California); Aldon Smith (Missouri); Adrian Clayborn (Iowa); Cameron Heyward (Ohio State).
2nd Round: Christian Ballard (Iowa); Jabaal Sheard (Pittsburgh); Allen Bailey (Miami).
3rd Round:None
4th Round: Greg Romeus (Pittsburgh); Pernell McPhee (Mississippi State); Ugo Chinasa (Oklahoma State); Pierre Allen (Nebraska)
5-7th Rounds: Cliff Matthews (South Carolina); Ricky Elmore (Arizona); Markus White (Florida State); Ryan Wintersyk (Boise State).
I think a) the Bears need to come out of the first two rounds with an immediate-starting, impact player at either DT or DE. Again, if they go with an edge rusher, expect Idonije and/or Melton to slide back inside to tackle. If the Bears go with a DT in the early part of the draft, I still expect them to add a project/potential sleeper in rounds 5-7. A couple of those guys I really like are Greg Romeus and Cliff Mathews. Romeus was rated as first-round talent in 2009; but is currently hurt (Back surgery). He is definitely worth taking a 5th or 6th-round flyer on, seeing as how you could pretty much redshirt him this season, with Peppers and Idonije entrenched at either DE spot. Mathews doesn’t have the ideal measurables; but was a 4-year starter at South Carolina, team captain, and had his biggest games this year against teams like Florida and Auburn—the teams with the NFL-type talent.
Road to the Draft…Part Three-Defensive Tackles
The next group of prospects we will show rankings for are defensive tackles. This, along with a pass-rushing DE, is probably the most important position in a cover-2 defense. Tommie Harris playing at an All-Pro level was the big difference between our defensive fall-off from 2006 to 2007 and 2008. Finding the new “Warren Sapp” has to be a priority heading into this draft. Now, you will only see DTs who project as fitting the Bears’ cover-2 scheme—meaning no 3-4 NTs on this list. Click on the players’ name to go to a link for a scouting video/report…
First Round: Corey Luiget (Illinois); Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple)
Second Round: Marvin Austin (North Carolina); Drake Nevis (LSU); Jurrell Casey (USC)
Third Round: Jarvis Jenkins (Clemson); Terrell McClain (USF)
Later Rounds: Martin Parker (Richmond); Ollie Ogbu (Penn State); Colby Whitlock (Texas Tech); Mike Blanc (Auburn);
I must admit I am not in the camp in favor of signing Cullen Jenkins away from the Packers in Free Agency; Call me gun-shy after watching the way injuries ruined the career of Tommie Harris. I think we would be much better off getting younger, more athletic at DT. We really only have Anthony Adams and Matt Toeina returning from last year’s rotation; and we can always move either Israel Idonije or Henry Melton back inside. But I think it is paramount that we come out of this draft with a stud three-technique tackle. So i expect us to draft one early in the first 3 rounds, but also maybe add a developmental project in rounds 6 or 7 that we think might fit our system. My dream scenario: Drake Nevis in the second round; and Mike Blanc/Martin Parker in the 5th or 6th round.
Final Thoughts Before the NFC Championship Game…
This one definitely has a different feel to it than the last two NFC Championship Games in which the Bears participated. In 1985, we were the best team in the NFL—maybe the history of the NFL—and we knew it. The Rams knew it. The game was almost a formality; and the final score of 24-0 might as well have been 124-0. In 2006, we were again clearly the best team in the NFC. And we steamrolled the Saints, 39-14, at Soldier Field. In the Snow. All was right with the world. We had a dominating defense, a great running game, a QB that could make big throws, and the most dominating return man in the game. And we were a young team. Not only did it seem like we could win that Super Bowl, but it seemed like we were primed for a run of NFC dominance that would result in a couple return trips to the big game in the next few years. As the Super Bowl started, and Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff 92 yards, it seemed as if the Bears were announcing themselves as the next great team in the NFL.
But we lost. 29-17. Cedric Benson & Rex Grossman couldn’t hold on to the ball. Our defense couldn’t stop the run. However, as the final seconds ticked away, I wasn’t all that sad—I felt almost like this was a rite of passage for the Bears, much like when we had lost in the playoffs the year before (at home) to the Panthers. It seemed like natural progression—step one, make the playoffs; step two, win a couple playoff games; step three, go all the way. Next year would be our year.
That offseason was a rocky road for the Bears. Defensive Coordinator Ron Rivera was let go, and LB Coach Bob Babich was named his successor. RB Thomas Jones, the team’s leading rusher the past 2 years, was traded to the Jets. DT Tank Johnson was arrested for the final time before being released. We traded S Chris Harris to the Panthers to make room for new free-agent signee S Adam Archuleta. LB Lance Briggs was threatening to sit out the whole season without a new contract. Then came maybe the worst Bears’ draft in the last 20 years, with guys like DE Dan Bazuin, LB Michael Okwo, RB Garrett Wolfe, and OG Josh Beekman. Lance Briggs eventually signed his 1-year tender; but it was clear he wanted a big money deal, either in Chicago or elsewhere.
Then the season started, and soon came the injuries. Mike Brown, for all intensive purposes, had his career ended on an illegal block by Lorenzo Neal in the first game of 2007 against the Chargers. A few weeks later, it was CB Nathan Vasher and DT Tommie Harris against the Cowboys. Brian Urlacher was announced to have a chronic back condition that would limit him for the remainder of his career. And Rex Grossman kept throwing interceptions. The Bears finished 7-9. They followed that season with a 9-7 and 7-9 season. So we have been 23-25 since the Super Bowl.
There have been some bright spots during the last three years—the stealing of QB Jay Cutler from the Broncos, the free-agent signing of DE Julius Peppers; but mostly it has been about injuries and unfulfilled promise. That’s why when the 2010 season started, there was not much optimism out side of Halas Hall for the Bears’ prospect this season, even after the offseason pickups of offensive coordinator Mike Martz and offensive line coach Mike Tice. “Experts” claimed we had a QB who throw too many picks; a shoddy WR corps; an even worse offensive line; and an aging defense. Most people picked the Bears to finish between 6-10 and 8-8….and few people expected us to make the playoffs. Even when we started 3-0, much of the credit was given to good fortune. And when we lost 3 of our next 4, the experts said that THIS was the real Bears team. We were given no respect when we closed the season on a 7-2 run to finish 11-5, with a first-round bye. And the win at home over the Seahawks in the Divisional Round has done little to quiet the critics. Chicago started the week as 4-point underdogs to the 6th-seeded Green Bay Packers. Maybe thats why this game has such a different feel to it. The Bears have rarely been a part of this game when they weren’t expected to win.
I also cannot remember a game in the Bears’ history that felt like more was riding on a victory:
Lovie Smith could become the first Bears coach EVER to go to 2 Super Bowls. Three Division titles and 2 Super Bowls in 7 years probably nets him an extension. When the Bears are losing, Lovie Smith has always been an easy traget for crticism, with his easy-going approach to the players. But the players love him; the veteran leaders all swear by him; and with a win, his style would once and for all be vindicated.
QB Jay Cutler would be in the Super Bowl before QBs that are considered better than him—Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan—and would shed the label that he can’t be a winning QB. No QB has endured more criticism from the national media than Jay. He was told he couldn’t make the playoffs as a QB; then that he could never win a playoff game. Then he goes out a DOMINATES in his first playoff game, a victory, and all he did was beat a team he was supposed to beat. A win over media darling Aaron Rodgers would be a big middle finger to all those so-called experts.
DE Julius Peppers would seem like the smartest guy in the NFL. When he signed his $90 million deal with the Bears this past offseason, he said it wasn’t about the money. It was about being part of a team that could win. Now. And people laughed. He thinks the Bears can win now? He has been the most dominant defender on our defense this season. However many votes he gets for Defensive POY will not be enough. His impact has been compared to the one DE Reggie White had when he signed with the Packers. For that to be true, he has to win today.
LB Brian Urlacher will give his final case to be Hall of Fame-worthy. Has another player ever been named Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, AND been voted the most overrated player in the NFL in his career? For someone who was washed up two years ago, he has definitely had a great season. A MLB in a Cover-2 scheme isn’t going to amass the numbers that some other MLBs will; but his career numbers are hard to top. The top 2 MLBs of this era are, unquestionably, Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher. Ray Lewis led his team to a Super Bowl win. Its the only thing missing on Urlacher’s mantle.
More than anything to me, this seems like a chance for finish the business the Bears started in 2006. It seems only fitting that before the season we re-acquired S Chris Harris; and that now, in the last few games, DT Tommie Harris seems to be rounding into form, with 3 sacks in the last 2 games. It seems fitting that you can turn on NFL Network this week and see highlights of C Olin Kreutz and OG Roberto Garza plowing the way for Bear RBs; or discussion about how Devin Hester is the most dangerous return man in the history of the NFL. It seems fitting that the Bears would talk about activating TE Desmond Clark for the first time in like 10 weeks…
Because I think the Bears players and coaches are NOT playing today just to beat the Packers, or for a spot in the Super Bowl in two weeks. For them, this game is a final chance to make all the wrong that has happened since the Super Bowl 4 years ago RIGHT.
Countdown to the NFC Championship Game: 4 Days
Today we will go over the matchup between the Packers’ defense and the Bears’ offense, along with some thoughts on which matchups the Bears will try to exploit. In the previous two matchups, the Packers held the Bears to 20 points and 3 points; and 7 of those come from a Devin Hester punt return. I feel like this is a different Bears offense than the Packers faced in both of those games—the first game, we were still shuffling the line and Matt Forte was not being used enough; and the second game, the Bears were not showing to much schematically in anticipation of a possible playoff meeting—but the Packers did have the 2nd-ranked scoring defense in the NFL this season. So lets look at the matchups.
The Bears’ offensive line versus the Packers’ Defensive Line/ Rush LBs: This is probably the most important battle for the Bears to win on Sunday afternoon. In the first meeting, Matt Forte was held to 29 yards on 11 carries and Jay Cutler was sacked 3 times. If the stats are duplicated on Sunday, the Bears will lose. In the second meeting, Matt Forte carried 15 times for 91 yards. Running the ball effectively will give us more manageable 3rd-down plays, and will take some steam out of the Green Bay pass rush, allowing our WRs and TEs to utilize their speed in man-on-man matchups.
Green Bay X-Factor: Cullen Jenkins and BJ Raji. For the Green Bay defense to stop the Bears, they must be able to get the Bears into 3rd-and-longs. Which means they must be able to hold Matt Forte to less than 6 yards per carry.
Chicago X-Factor: Jay Cutler. Green Bay’s pass rush is much better than the Bears’ ability to pass protect. So Cutler has to be smart, as he has been the last half of the season—running when he has to; throwing the ball away when he has to.
The Bears’ RBs/TEs/WRs versus the Packers’ LBs and secondary: This is a matchup that the Bears stack up much better than most so-called ‘experts’ would have you believe. The Packers’ back, from a size-speed standpoint, are not much different than the Cowboys and Jets, who also play in a base 3-4, and both teams which the Bears had some success against this season. 3-4 LBs Desmond Bishop, AJ Hawk, and Clay Mathews will have a hard time keeping up with RBs Matt Forte and TE Greg Olsen, who combined for 20 catches in the 2 meetings this season. CBs Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are not particularly fast, but can be physical. In the first meeting, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennett combined for 7 catches for 131 yards. In the Week 17 game, the Packers’ CBs jammed our WRs at the line, and Knox and Hester caught 1 BALL COMBINED for 16 yards (Bennett missed the game due to injury). Alot of the WRs success will be predicated upon the pass protecton, but if Cutler gets time, expect alot of WR crossing routes to take advantage of their speed; and alot of isolation plays for Olsen and Forte out in space against LBs.
Green Bay X-factor: CB Charles Woodson. The Packers had success with secondary blitzes in the Week 17 game, so expect it to continue in Sunday’s game. And Woodson will not only be responsible for rushing the passer, but also covering the Bears’ speedy WRs.
Chicago X-Factor: OTs Frank Omiyale & JMarcus Webb, and TE Brandon Manumaleuna. The Bears’ passing scheme puts these three players in one-on-one matchups with the rushing OLBs and CBs of the Packers. The Packers had 3 sacks (2 by outside rushers) in the first meeting, and 6 (5 by outside rushers) in the second meeting.
I expect a couple differences in the Bears’ offensive scheme from the previous two meetings:
1) In the first game with Green Bay, the Bears called 18 runs and 30 pass plays. In the Week 17 meeting, the Bears called 20 runs and 45 passes. Thats 38 runs and 75 passes in two games, or 35% runs and 65% passes. In the Bears 9 other games since the bye week, the Bears have called 273 run plays and 271 pass plays–almost a perfect 50-50 balance. I expect alot more runs in Sunday’s game, as Matt Forte ran for 6 yards per carry in the last meeting.
2) As the season progressed, the Bears began attacking outside blitzes with short passes to TE Greg Olsen and WR Earl Bennett. As this season progressed, Bennett slowly became Cutler’s favorite target on 3rd downs. And while being relatively quiet all season long, Olsen has caught 8 passes for 142 yards in the past two games. I expect both of them to play a big role this Sunday.
Countdown to the NFC Championship Game: 5 Days
Today, we will look at the matchup between the Packers’ offense versus the Bears’ defense. The Packers are hot, having scored an average of 35 points per game the last 5 weeks. However, the Bears held them to 10 points in the third game of that 5-game span. In fact, the Bears’ defense has matched up well with the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ offense over the last 2 years—in 4 games against the Bears, they have scored 17 points per game. In the 31 games against everyone else? Just under 30 points per game—almost 2 TDs less per game. Lets look at the matchups:
Packers’ offensive line versus Bears’ defensive line: The Packers offensive line, blamed last year for almost sending Aaron Rodgers into early retirement, was much improved this year—Aaron Rodgers was sacked 31 times this season, as opposed to 50 times last season. This season, in the Bears’ 20-17 win in Week 3, the Packers committed 18 penalties—mostly holding and illegal procedure, and the referees missed another 10-15. In the Packers’ 10-3 win in Week 17, the offensive line did a much better job protecting Rodgers, and he was able to complete a couple long passes to set up the 2 Packers’ scores.
Green Bay X-Factor: Aaron Rodgers’ scrambling ability. He is not Michael Vick, but Rodgers’ ability to move in the pocket and throw in the run could give the Packers’ WRs more time to get open and create big plays.
Chicago X-Factor: Tommie Harris. You know what you’re going to get from DEs Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije. Tommie Harris has 3 sacks in the past 2 games. If he can shoot gaps in the run game and create up-the-middle pressure in the passing game, Green Bay’s offensive line will have trouble keeping Aaron Rodgers comfortable.
Packers’ RBs, TEs and WRs versus the Bears’ LBs and secondary: You will have a hard time finding a trio of LBs that read plays and fly to the ball like the Bears’ Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, and Pisa Tinoisamoa. That being said, Packers’ TE Jeremichael Finley had 9 catches for 120 yards in the first meeting this season. Luckily for the Bears, he is out for the year. The Packers have maybe the most talented trio of WRs in the league with Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and James Jones. And Jordy Nelson is as good a 4th WR as you will find in the league. For the Bears, there seemed to be alot of holes in the secondary once S Chris Harris left the game with a hip injury. Our back four seemed out of position. Alot. Harris says he will be able to go, so lets hope he is at 100 percent. Also, Tillman dropped 2 potential INTs in that 4th quarter against the Seahawks, and we cannot afford to miss those opportunities against an elite QB like Rodgers.
Packers’ X-Factor: WR James Jones. The Bears were able to shut down the first option of the Seahawks, WR Mike Williams. However, WR Brandon Stokely was open out of the slot the entire game. It seemed that there were some holes in the Bears’ zones between the nickle corner DJ Moore and the LBs for quick hitting seam plays. Expect the Packers to try to exploit some quick hitters to negate the Bears’ pass rush.
Bears’ X-Factor: Stripping the Ball. The key play in the Week 3 win over the Packers was Urlacher popping the ball loose from WR James Jones, which CB Tim Jennings recovered. Last week against the Falcons, WR Greg Jennings had the ball knocked out from behind by LB Stephen Nicholas in the first quarter. CB Charles Tillman and FS Chris Harris are notorious for popping the ball out while tackling runners. The Packers should be throwing alot of underneath passes and trying to run after the catch. In a game where one mistake could determine the outcome, a fumble recovery could be the difference once again.
Countdown to the NFC Championship: 6 DAYS (Part 1)
Our first two parts of coverage regarding the game this upcoming Sunday afternoon will be a recap of the previous two meetings this season between our Bears and the Green Bay Packers (Just as a reminder, both teams held serve on their home fields for a season split).
In Week 3, the Packers traveled to Soldier Field for a Monday Night tilt with the Bears. The Bears came out on top, 20-17; with the score tied in the 4th quarter, Brian Urlacher stripped Packers’ WR James Jones of the ball from behind, and Tim Jennings recovered the ball—giving the Bears great field position to kick the game-winning FG. Here is the box score from the game, via ESPN. A couple observations from that game:
1) Julius Peppers finished the game with 0 sacks, but completely dominated the Packers’ offensive line. The Packers committed 18 PENALTIES—and most of those were either holding or illegal procedure.
2) Devin Hester FINALLY got back into “Devin Hester Return Mode” with his 62-yard punt return for a TD in the 3rd quarter. Also, Danieal Manning added a 44-yard kickoff return.
3) Our offensive line struggled mightily. In what probably should have been a scary forewarning to what would happen one week later in New York against the Giants, Our line not only allowed 3 sacks and 6 hits on QB Jay Cutler, they helped pave the way for—get ready—14 rushed for 38 yards (a 2.7 average) for our RBs, Matt Forte and Chester Taylor. In fact, QB Jay Cutler was our leading rusher with 37 yards on 3 scrambles.
4) TE Jeremichael Finley gave the Bears’ defense fits. For a team that prides itself on the LBs’ ability to clog up zones inside the hashmarks, Finely gouged us for 9 catches for 115 yards. He was only targeted 9 times—so every time they threw the ball his way, they were successful. We couldn’t even bat one down or something.
All in all, Cutler wasn’t bad (16 for 27, 221 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT); but the running game was non-existent, and the Bears used an old formula to pull this game out—outstanding defense + special teams.
Seahawks @ Bears, NFC Divisional Playoffs
This game is a rematch from Week 6, when the Seahawks came into Chicago and defeated the Bears 23-20. Few would argue that the Bears are a different team than they were then, as evidenced by the Bears being 10-point favorites this weekend. However, when you take into account that if not for a Devin Hester punt return TD at the end of the game, the Bears would have lost 23-13. So the game was not as close as the score would indicate. For the Bears to turn the tables and advance to the NFC Championship game, here are some things they have to do:
1) Play up on Mike Williams. In the game in Week 6, Seahawks WR Mike Williams was targeted 15 times, caught 10 of those passes for 123 yards. His long reception was 24, which means that for the most part, they were 3-yard slanting us all the way down the field. Further evidence for this is Matt Hasslebeck’s numbers that day: 25-20, 242 yards. That’s only 6.1 yards per attempt, which means they weren’t taking many shots downfield. With the conditions at Soldier Field being what they usually are in January, I don’t expect the Seahawks to try and challenge the Bears deep with Hasslebeck’s mediocre arm. Especially with Idonije and Peppers lurking. So the Bears must to a better job of forcing longer pass attempts.
2) Stop the Seahawks’ running game. In Week 6, RBs Justin Forsett and Marshawn Lynch combined for 27 carries and 111 yards. The Bears’ defense normaly gives up 70-80 rushing yards per game. So its safe to say we were controlled at the line of scrimmage. In addition, we saw the way Lynch’s power running changed the complexion of the Seahawks’ victory over the Saints last weekend. We must control the line of scrimmage, and tackle better than we did in Week 6.
3) Commit to the running game. Matt Forte ran 8 times for 11 yards in the first meeting. 11 yards. Even if they contain Forte in this game as well, that cannot deter us from running the ball more than 8 times.
4) Protect Jay Cutler. Cutler was sacked 6 times in Week 6; pressured on almost every pass. He was throwing under duress which hampered his accuracy, as evidenced by the 45% completion rate(17 of 39). The amazing thing is that we still threw for 290 yards, which was 17.1 yards per completion. So big plays will be there in the passing game, we just have to give Cutler time to make those throws.
5) Contain Leon Washington. Our kick coverage has been suspect all year. Leon Washington lead the NFL with 3 kickoff returns for TDs. In a game where our defense should be able to control their offense, we cannot do them any favors by allowing them to start at the 40-yard line or worse. Corey Graham, Nick Roach, and Major Wright will be big here.
My prediction: Bears’ defense will dominate at home, and Bears will score just enough to put it away. Bears 23, Seahawks 6.
What to Watch For This Weekend…
I’m not sure if there is a more relaxing weekend in the world for an NFL fan than Wild Card Weekend when your team has a first-round bye. Lovie Smith sent the players home for the weekend on Thursday; hopefully, those guys with minor injuries (Major Wright, Chris Harris, Nick Roch, Pisa Tinoisamoa) are healing up and will be ready to go on Monday when the team re-convenes.
This weekend is still important to the Bears, however. The results of the NFC Wild Card games over the next two games—New Orleans at Seattle on Saturday; and Green Bay at Philadelphia on Sunday—will determine the Bears’ opponent next Sunday afternoon. Its an interesting scenario for the Bears—the weakest team of the lot—the Seahawks, have already beaten us on our home turf this season; The Saints are scary because they have a great passing offense and they are the defending World Champs; and the Eagles have a dynamic offense that might be tough to beat twice in one year. With all this in mind, here is what I will be looking for this weekend:
1) How will the loss of their top 2 RB’s affect the Saints? This weekend, Julius Jones will be the starting running back for the Saints. Seriously. Their top 2 RBs, Chris Ivory and Pierre Thomas, are both out for the playoffs. Last year, Pierre Thomas was maybe more important than Drew Brees to that offense, bringing balance to a team that has always been pass-happy. So look for the Saints to rely on the pass more than ever, and if they do run, expect a lot of 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long situations for the Saints. Even if they beat the Seahawks on Saturday, I am not sure they can move down the field on the Bears if there is no threat of a run game. Look how we stopped the Packers’ offense last Sunday. And to all Saints’ fans: with Malcolm Jenkins out as well, and playing in Seattle, I have a feeling this game might be closer for longer than most people are thinking. With that being said…
2) Can the Seahawks’ Pass Defense hold up with the Saints’ Pass Offense? The Seahawks were abysmal defending the pass this season, allowing over 7 yards per pass attempt, almost 14 yards per pass completion, giving up 31 passing touchdowns, and only getting 14 interceptions. Now, you look at the secondary with a past Pro Bowler in Marcus Trufant, dynamic rookie Earl Thomas, and savvy veteran Lawyer Milloy, and you automatically think that their pass rush was lacking; however, they were 6th in the nFC with 37 sacks, so thats not terrible. However, if you give up 31 TDs in a season where you get to play St Louis, San Francisco, and Arizona all TWICE, you have some issues in the back half. And you are facing Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore, and Reggie Bush. I look for WR Lance Moore and TEs Jeremy Shockey and Jimmy Graham to have big days. While we are on the subject, let me say without sounding crazy that the Seahawks, in alot of ways, offer more of a matchup problem for the Bears’ defense than the Packers or the Saints. Seattle has something that is an all-time Cover-2 killer—a downhill, cutback runner—Marshawn Lynch.
3) Can the Packers stop LeSean McCoy? You have to think that last Sunday, if he was watching Matt Forte average 6 yards per carry and catch numerous passes out of the backfield against the Packers, that LeSean McCoy, who has a similar skill set to Forte, was already licking his chops? The Packers have no ability to stop an off-tackle run. The Packers have nobody who can cover a pass-catching RB or a pass-catching TE—and the Eagles have both in McCoy and TE Brent Celek. Andy Reid is no dummy—I expect him to run the ball down the Packers’ throats until they prove they can stop it.
4) How will the Eagles attack Aaron Rodgers? The normal school of thought when facing an elite QB, like Aaron Rodgers, is to get pressure by blitzing from alot of different angles. However, since the Packers cannot run the ball, you can rush four and flood the passing zones, which is what the Bears did last Sunday—and if not for a blown coverage by Danieal Manning, would have held the Packers out of the End Zone. Greg Jennings vs. Asante Samuel is a wash; if the Packers are going to move the ball, they will have to exploit Donald Driver versus Dimitri Patterson (who played pretty well in his first year as a starter), and James Jones versus the Eagles’ nickelback , Joselio Hanson. The Packers like to chuck the ball downfield—and the Eagles like to jump routes—so there are going to be big plays, one way or the other.
Meanwhile, in the AFC, you have the Jets visiting the Colts, and the Ravens visiting the Chiefs. Let me say that if I am a Jets’ fan, I am wondering WHY WOULD REX RYAN GIVE PEYTON MANNING ANY EXTRA MOTIVATION TO PLAY WELL? You know Manning is still upset about the way the Super Bowl ended last year. Remember, the Bears’ offense scored 38 on the Jets’ supposdely vaunted defense. And, if it comes down to QB play—who do you trust—Peyton Manning, or Mark Sanchez? I expect the Colts to win, and it not to be that close. As far as Ravens-Chiefs, the Chiefs can keep it close if Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles have big games, as they have had all year long. Matt Cassel is not spectacular, but he doesn’t lose games either. And I am not sold on Joe Flacco until he actually has to win a game that his defense lets him down in. The Ravens are the sexy pick here, but I think the Chiefs at least keep it close. These two teams are closer statistically than you initially would think. And Arrowhead Stadium is one of the great home-field advantages in the NFL.
Lovie to get an Extension after a Playoff Win?
This time just 12 months ago, most people expected and almost everybody clamored for Lovie S mith to be fired after the end of last season. 3 straight years NOT making the playoffs, after seemingly being on the cusp of a great run following the Super Bowl appearance in 2006. The trade for Jay Cutler the previous offseason hd yet to show any dividends in the win-loss column. And we seemed light years behind what the Vikings, with their all-star laden lineup, and the Packers, with their stud young QB Aaron Rodgers, were doing. Rumors swirled of Bill Cowher coming to make things right in the Windy City.
But Angelo decided to keep Lovie Smith. Promoted Rod Marinelli to Defensive Coordinator, a role he had never played in 20+ seasons of being in the NFL. Afgter failed attempts at wooing the Vikings’ Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell and the Broncos’ former Offensive Coordinator Jeremy Bates, the Bears seemed to ‘settle’ on Mike Martz, who had some bright years in St Louis, but was marred recently by clashes with head coaches and players. Mike Tice was brought in to coach the offensive line. Three former head coaches on a staff with a current head coach? Admittedly, I began having visions of Mike Tice wrestling Mike Martz to the ground after calling 99 consecutive passing plays…Rod Marinelli and Lovie Smith arguing about whether Brian Urlacher should drop 25 or 35 yards back in the Tampa-2.
After a winless preseason that was difficult to watch, the team started out fast, going 3-0. Then came the Giants game, where Jay Cutler almost had to be scraped off of the turf with a putty knife, followed by a win against a Carolina team that would be relegated for the University of Alabama if this were the English Premier League. Then, we lose to two BAD teams in the Seahawks and Redskins. Even after a win versus a CRAPPY Buffalo team that put us at 5-3 going into the second half of the season, it looked like DOOM. The offense was sputtering, the defense couldn’t pick up all of the slack, and our second half schedule looked BRUTAL.
Then something AMAZING happened. Martz called more running plays. Devin Hester went to a completely different stratosphere of kick and punt returning. Chris Harris gained a step I’m not sure he even had when he was here the first time. Matt Forte started playing like a 6-foot 2-inch, 220 -pound version of Marshall Faulk. Jay Cutler stopped throwing interceptions. We win 6 of 7, and clinch the NFC North!
So now alot of the same people who were going to help push the Lovie Smith Express out of Chicago are now talking contract extension. Here is the story from the Chicago Tribune:
From the outside looking in, he has won 3 division titles and taken us to a Super Bowl. In the 44 seasons since the AFL-NFL Merger, only Ditka did that here. It seems like with Lovie Smith, however, people are more likely to remember the 3 losing seasons, or the draft pick busts, like Rex Grossman, Michael Haynes, Cedric Benson, etc. They remember him for letting Thomas Jones walk for practically nothing. They remember him for dumping Ron Rivera for his pal Bob Babich. Maybe its because we lost the one Super Bowl Lovie Smith coached. Maybe its because we thought, for sure, we would be back the following year. Maybe its left over bitterness from the unrealized potential of the 1982-1988 Bears teams. Maybe its because Lovie doesn’t stomp and yell and curse. Think of all the intense players and coaches that have come through Chicago. Dick Butkus. Mike Ditka. Michael Jordan. Imagine if they would have had the demeanor of Lovie Smith?
I have been one of Lovie Smith’s biggest critics. When teams are 5-yard slanting our defense all the way down the field, and the cameras cut to Lovie standing there with that dumb look on his face, it can be downright MADDENING. The shuffling in and out of players this season was almost as confusing as his past history of stubbornness to bench underperforming players. Some of his in-game decisions (NOT challenging Jay Cutler’s fumble on the goal line versus Washington) are, to say the least, questionable. But, in Lovie’s defense, he:
a) has seemed to put together a pretty good staff–Martz has the offense putting fear into opposing defenses; Tice has done alot with a patchwork offensive line group, and Rod Amrinelli has the defense attacking and creating takeaways. Maybe he was always a better Tuesday through Saturday, administrative-type coach who needs to delegate the gameday play-calling and game-planning to be successful. There is nothing wrong with that. Dick Vermiel was that way. Tom Landry was that way. Don Shula was that way.
b) He has the unwavering support of his players. They love the way he NEVER puts their business out in the press, and NEVER uses the media to leverage his players to play better or act a certain way. And if you don’t think having the support of your players is important, see what happened in Dallas and Minnesota this year.
One luxury the Bears have in regards to Lovie Smith is that he is already signed through 2012. So, regardless of what happens this year, if the Bears follow it up with another strong season and playoff appearance, maybe he gets another contract extension. And, as much as I am surprised to find myself saying this, maybe he deserves it, even if only a little bit.
Some Numbers to Chew On (Part Four)
The Final Numbers we will look at are Special Teams Numbers. First, the return stats—Kick Return Average; Kick Returns of 40+ Yards; Punt Return Average; Punt Returns of 20+ Yards:
Chicago: 25.4 Yards Per Kick Return; 10 Kick Returns of 40+ Yards; 17.1 Yards Per Punt Return; 14 Punt Returns of 20+ Yards
Atlanta: 26.5 ; 5 ; 12.1 ; 2
Philadelphia: 20.5 ; 2 ; 10.6 ; 6
Seattle: 24.0 ; 7 ; 11.1 ; 10
New Orleans: 22.7 ; 0 ; 7.8 ; 4
Green Bay: 20.1 ; 5; 7.9 ; 5
The Bears obviously have the best return game in the league—with Devin Hester and Danieal Manning. The Seahawks can be dangerous in returns with Leon Wasington—but he is decidedly more adept at kickoff returns; and the Packers and Saints (missing Reggie Bush most of the season) are putrid in the return game. Now lets look at the coverage units. Stats we will use are Kick Return Average Allowed; Kickoff Touchbacks Forced; Punt Return Average Allowed; Punt Fair Catches Forced; and Punts Inside the 20 Yard Line:
Chicago: 23.8 Yards Per Kick Return Allowed; 16 Kickoff Touchbacks Forced; 7.8 Yards Per Punt Return Allowed; 10 Punt Fair Catches Forced; 24 Punts Inside the 20 Yard Line
Atlanta: 21.3 ; 23 ; 8.6 ; 24 ; 29
Philadelphia: 21.8 ; 23 ; 9.1 ; 21 ; 28
Seattle: 22.0 ; 20 ; 9.3 ; 23 ; 27
New Orleans : 24.1 ; 14 ; 11.9 ; 10 ; 21
Green Bay ; 21.8 ; 4 ; 11.0 ; 18 ; 25
A couple things jumped out at me on this one: 1) The Bears and Saints seem to have trouble forcing fair catches—either their gunners aren’t getting down field, or the punters are out-kicking the coverage units; and 2) The Packers have JUST 4 Touchbacks? This could come into play as they will face dynamic return men on the Eagles, Falcons and Bears.
Some Numbers to Chew On (Part Three)
In this post, we will compare the defensive numbers for the 6 NFC playoff teams. Lets begin with Rushing Defense. We will look at Attempts Against, Yards Allowed per Carry, and Rushing Touchdowns Against:
Chicago: 386 Rushes Against; 3.7 Yds Allowed per Carry; 14 Rushing TDs Against
Atlanta: 366 ; 4.6 ; 9
Philadelphia: 423 ; 4.2 ; 12
Seattle: 452 ; 4.2 ; 13
New Orleans: 421 ; 4.3 ; 13
Green Bay: 395 ; 4.7 ; 6
You automatically see how stout the Bears’ run defense has been all year long; and how porous Atlanta’s and Green Bay’s have been. The nest rushing defense stats will show how susceptible to the big rushing play the defenses are—Rushes of 20+ Yards Allowed; and Rushes of 40+ Yards Allowed:
Chicago: 13 Rushes Allowed of 20+ Yards; 1 Rush Allowed of 40+ Yards
Atlanta: 10 ; 5
Philadelphia: 9 ; 1
Seattle: 16 ; 3
New Orleans: 13 ; 3
Green Bay: 10 ; 1
Atlanta allowed 5 RUNS OF 40+ YARDS. That’s a pretty high number; especially for a team that was playing with a lead alot, forcing teams to pass (note how Atlanta has the least Rushing Attempts Against).
On to Passing Defense—lets start with Yards Allowed Per Pass Attempt; Completion Percentage Allowed; and Passing TD’s Allowed:
Chicago: 6.6 Yds Allowed Per Pass Attempt; 62.4 Completion Percentage Alowed; 14 Passing TDs Allowed
Atlanta: 6.9 ; 62.0% ; 23
Philadelphia: 7.0 ; 57.6% ; 31
Seattle: 7.2 ; 57.9% ; 31
New Orleans: 6.8 ; 61.9% ; 13
Green Bay: 6.5 ; 56.2% ; 16
The Bears and Packers clearly have the best Pass Defenses of the playoff teams; They do it in different ways; with the Packers 3-4 scheme blitzing from every angle—while the Bears Cover-2, rushing the front four and daring you to settle for 4-5 yards per pass all the way down the field. The Packers had 47 sacks, while the Bears had 34. Now lets look at Turnovers Forced–Fumbles Recovered; and Interceptions:
Chicago: 35 Turnovers Forced (14 Fumbles Recovered ; 21 Interceptions)
Atlanta: 31 (9 ; 22)
Philadelphia: 34 (11 ; 23)
Seattle: 22 (10 ; 12)
New Orleans: 25 (16 ; 9)
Green Bay: 32 (8 ; 24)
The Bears, who have always stressed takeaways, led the field with 35. The Saints and the Bears seem the most adept at stripping the ball. The Seahawks and Saints cannot take the ball away through the air.
If defense still wins championships, then the Bears and Packers seem to have a leg up on the field going into the playoffs.
Some Numbers to Chew On (Part Two)
Now we will look at the passing offenses of the 6 NFC playoff teams. The first group of numbers are completion percentage; yards per pass attempt; and TD passes:
Chicago: 59.2 completion %; 7.3 yards per attempt; 23 TDs
Atlanta: 62.6 %; 6.5 ypa; 28 TDs
Philadelphia: 62.0 %; 7.5 ypa; 28 TDs
Seattle: 59.6 %; 6.5 ypa; 14 TDs
New Orleans: 68.1 %; 7.0 ypa; 33 TDs
Green Bay: 65.1 %; 8.0 ypa; 31 TDs
One interesting thing of note is that the Bears, while having the 2nd-worst completion rate; have one of the best yards per pass attempt. This means that we are probably taking more shots at mid-to-long range passes than any of the other teams. Think about this: if the Bears had the NFL average completion percentage, which is 62%, and kept the same pass attempt rate, our yards per attempt jumps to 7.8 ypa. The other interesting thing that jumps out is the low ypa for the Falcons, even with such a high completion rate. This means the Falcons rarely go downfield; and are content with safe, 5-6 yard passes, checkdowns, and screens. The NFL average for yards per COMPLETED pass is 12.3; the Falcons are at 9.8 yards per completion. I think you will see teams begin to dare Matt Ryan to throw downfield as the playoffs progress.
The next stats are explosive passing plays—pass plays of 20+ yards, and pass plays of 40+ yards:
Chicago: 42 passes of 20+ yards; 6 passes of 40+ yards
Atlanta: 32; 6
Philadelphia: 61; 15
Seattle: 39; 11
New Orleans: 47; 10
Green Bay: 57; 11
After the last stats, it should come as no surprise, then, that the Falcons had the fewest pass plays of at least 20 yards. It did surprise me that they had less than the Seahawks, whose passing offense was one of the worst in the NFL. And I think its fair to note that of the Bears 48 pass plays of 20 yards or more, I would bet at least 70% of those cam in the last half of the season, primarily in the games against the Eagles, Jets, and Vikings; once the offensive line solidified and Martz opened up the playbook a little more.
The last group of stats are the negative passing plays—sacks and interceptions:
Chicago: 56 sacks allowed; 21 INTs
Atlanta: 23 ; 9
Philadelphia: 50; 13
Seattle: 35; 20
New Orleans: 26; 22
Green Bay: 38; 13
The first thing that surprised me is that for all the talk about Jay Cutler being a INT-machine, he threw 16 this season (Todd Collins somehow managed 5 INTs in 6 or 7 passing attempts); and The Great Drew Brees threw 22. The Falcons are rarely getting sacked or picked off because they do not throw passes that have to travel more than 5 yards in the air. Its clear that the Saints have the pass protection of the teams that are left in the NFC.
When you look at the Offensive numbers as a whole; with the exception of the Seahawks (who got in only because SOMEONE from the NFC West had to), the numbers of are all pretty consistent. You can notice some trends, like the big play capability of the Eagles, and the conservative nature of the Falcons. But nothing that you probably would not notice just watching these teams for a few games. Teams are so evenly matched in the playoffs, it usually comes down to a few big plays or turnovers.
Some Numbers to Chew On (Part One)…
Since we are in a bye week, and will be able to sit back and relax as we watch the first round of the playoffs, I thought I would put together some stats I thought were pertinent to the playoffs, and how the Bears stack up in each category with all of their possible opponents.
The first stats I want to look at are Rushing attempts, Rushing Yards, and Yards per Rush:
Chicago: 414 attempts; 1616 yards; 3.9 average
Atlanta: 497; 1,891; 3.8
Philadephia: 427; 2327; 5.4
Seattle: 385; 1424; 3.7
New Orleans: 380; 1519; 4.0
Green Bay: 421; 1606; 3.8
As you can see, everyone is pretty much around 4 yards per rush, with the exception of the Eagles—and their numbers are a little skewed due to Michael Vick. A couple things that surprised me were the fact that a) the Falcons with Michael Turner are supposed to be this physical, tough rushing team; yet their numbers aren’t that much different from us, or even the Packers, who have been under scrutiny all year long for the play of their offensive lines.
The next rushing stats I want to show are big play stats—rushes of 20+ yards, 40+ yards, and TDs:
Chicago: 11 rushes of 20+ yds; 2 rushes of 40+ yds; 10 rushing TDs
Atlanta: 12; 1; 14
Philadelphia: 19; 6; 18
Seattle: 12; 0; 13
New Orleans: 7; 2; 9
Green Bay: 3; 1; 11
This one again I think is skewed a bit for the Eagles due to Vick running from the QB position–however, he is a threat that must be taken into account. The striking thing in these stats is the low numbers for the Packers. You would think with the threat of Aaron Rodgers and all those WRs, you could sneak out more than 3 long draw plays or something.
The final stats for rushing offense are Negative Runs, and Fumbles Lost:
Chicago: 53 negative rushes; 10 fumbles
Atlanta: 47; 7
Philadelphia: 23; 11
Seattle: 49; 10
New Orleans: 32; 7
Green Bay: 35; 8
You can see the Bears are DEAD LAST when it comes to negative runs; It would be interesting to see how many of those came from Forte versus Taylor; or how many were in the first seven games. But it did jump out at me a bit. Also, of the 10 fumbles lost, only 1 came from an RB. The others were WR/TE running after the catch, or Cutler getting sacked. It was also interesting to see that Atlanta has the second most negative rushes. This tells me that people are stacking the box, and are not really worried about Ryan and the Falcons beating them deep.
As this week goes along, we will also compare passing offense; as well as Rushing and Passing Defense as the week goes along. Comment on how you thinks these stats will show themselves in the next few weeks, if at all. It is also important to consider how the specific martchups will lend themselves to certain stats.
UPDATE: The Saints announced today that they were placing Chris Ivory, their leading rusher this season, on Injured Reserve, so he is out for the rest of the playoffs. It probably won’t matter versus the Seahawks this weekend, but if they have to travel to Chicago, Philly, or Green Bay––
Bears @ Packers, 1-2-11
Lets begin with an injury report recap. The Bears all hand on deck at Friday’s practice, with only WR Earl Bennett (ankle) being limited. Bennett is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. For the Packers, S Atari Bigby (groin), FB Korey Hall (knee), DE Cullen Jenkins (calf), and LB Frank Zombo (knee) are all out for Sunday’s game; while OT Chad Clifton (knees), S Nick Collins (ribs), LB Clay Mathews (shin), and DL Ryan Pickett (ankle) were limited in practice on Friday and are listed as probable for Sunday. With the Packers needing a win to make the playoffs, I expected everyone on the roster to make a go of it—so I am a little surprised that Cullen Jenkins was already ruled out for Sunday—but otherwise, it looks like the Packers will pretty much be a full go. Now on to some observations for this game:
1) Who will play for the Bears? We have somewhat of a slight advantage by playing at 3:15 on Sunday. Atlanta (vs. Carolina) and New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay) both host winnable games at 12:00; but should both of those teams lose, the Bears with a win over the Packers would clinch home-field throughout the playoffs. If one or both of those teams win, and lock the Bears into the #2 seed, then the Bears have an interesting dilemma: how long do you play your starters, if at all? On one hand, you can rest all your best players and go into the playoffs as probably the healthiest team in the NFL. But do you want to give the Packers an easier game to clinch a playoff spot, and risk having to play them THREE times in the same season? One of the interesting subplots to the Bears’ postseason is that we will host either the Eagles or Giants (who we have already played this year), or the Packers (who we will have already played twice).
2. If the starters do play, how will our secondary hold up versus the Packers’ passing attack? Our pass defense has looked shaky (to put it mildly) against the Patriots and Jets. Can we put pressure on Aaron Rodgers? Can we cover the Packers’ WR corps? With prospective games in the playoffs against the Eagles, Packers, Saints, or Falcons—we must get this in order.
3. If the core starters are rested, what young players will step up? If the starters are rested for the playoffs (which I expect if the Falcons and/Saints win), look for these guys to get alot of reps: RB Kahlil Bell, WR Devin Aromashodu, WR Juaquin Iglesias, OG Lance Louis, OL Herman Johnson, DE Corey Wootton, CB Joshua Moore, S Major Wright, and S Craig Steltz. The play of these younger players will offer a glimpse of what areas the Bears need to prepare to draft in 2011.
Obscure Stats from the 2010 Season.
> Johnny Knox has had 84% of his catches go for first downs. That is the highest percetange in the NFL of anyone with at least 40 catches. The next highest is Desean Jackson (Eagles) wih 71%. Knox also is 40 yards away from being the first Bear with 1,000 receiving yards in a season since Marty Booker in 2002.
> When Chris Harris and Danieal Manning start the Bears’ game at the Packers on Sunday, it will mark the first time since 2001 the same set of safeties started all 16 games for the Bears (Mike Brown and Tony Parrish).
> With 3,666 yards in 2009 and 3,106 yards (so far) this season, Jay Cutler is the first Bears QB to throw for 3,000 yards in two consecutive years since…EVER.
> If he can get 22 rushing yards and 13 receiving yard on Sunday, Matt Forte will be the first Bear to have 1,000 yards rushing and 500 yards receiving since Walter Payton in 1983.
> Julius Peppers (8) and Israel Idonije (8) are the first Bears defensive ends to get 8 or more sacks in the same season since 1993 (Richard Dent and Trace Armstrong).
> Devin Hester (14) set the record for combined return TDs in 75 games and 289 returns; Brian Mitchell (13) took 197 games and 1,093 returns to set the previous record. That means the previous record holder ran a TD back every 84 returns; Hester averages one TD every 20 returns. If Hester played as long as Mitchell and kept the same pace, he would end up with 54 return TDs.
> Chris Harris is the first Bears safety with 5 INTs in one season since Mike Brown in 2001.
> The Bears have a chance to be the first NFC North team to go 6-0 in divisional play in a season since the NFL realigned the divisions in 2002.
The Pro Bowl Rosters, from a Bears’ Point of View…
Let me begin by saying “THANK YOU” to the Vikings for shocking the Eagles in Philly to give us first-round bye. Don’t look now, but the Bears, who play at Green Bay at 4:15 on Sunday, are going to be able to see if the Falcons and Saints both win before deciding how long to play our starters, if at all. More on that stuff tomorrow. But today, lets go over the Pro Bowl. Congratulations to Devin Hester, Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, and Lance Briggs for making the Pro Bowl—I don’t think anyone could call their placement on the Pro Bowl team unjustified. Hester has been the best returner in either league; Peppers and Urlacher could both make a case for Defensive Player of the Year; and Briggs has been his usual consistent self.
Now, I want to take a look at the full NFC roster and compare, by the numbers, how some Bears who weren’t named to the squad stack up numbers-wise with the guys who made the NFC Roster (Here’s hoping NO Bears play in the Pro Bowl, because they are getting ready for a game the following Sunday).
Jay Cutler, QB- I think Cutler, especially after last weeks game, has won as many of his detractors over as he possibly can without winning a playoff game. YET. Pro-Bowl-wise, it is hard to argue with who made the roster, especially when you consider there wasn’t even room for Aaron Rodgers on the roster. Matt Ryan will be there on the basis of being the QB of the team with the Best Record. Drew Brees won the Super Bowl last year and has had a good year; and Michael Vick is the feel-good story of the NFL this year. Cutler has had a good year; but it would be hard fro someone to argue his way onto the roster above those four guys.
Matt Forte, RB- Forte may have the best argument for being snubbed as his numbers compare pretty favorably with the three guys who made the team, Michael Turner (Falcons), Adrian Peterson (Vikings), and Stephen Jackson (Rams). On the surface, if you look at rushing yards ONLY, Forte with 978 yards seems not in the same league with those guys: Turner (1304), Peterson (1267), the Giants’ Ahmad Bradshaw (1213), S.Jackson (1196), and the Eagles’ Lesean McCoy (1080) are all well ahead of the Bears’ RB. However, if you take into account recieving yards as well as rushing yards, then Forte ranks ahead of Turner by a large margin (1465 to 1389). Forte has more TDs (9) than Bradshaw (8) or Jackson (6); and averages more yards per carry (4.4) than Turner (4.1) or Jackson (3.7).
Olin Kreutz, C- I know there are no real NFL-kept stats to rate the performance of an offensive lineman, as opposed to other positions. However, the importance of Kreutz cannot be understated, as he is the ONLY player on our offensive line that is playing the same position they started the season in. He has held his own against the great DTs in our division. And I don’t know too much about the centers that were selected, except that Andre Gurode’s team (Cowboys) is 5 AND FREAKING 10; and Shaun O’Hara (Giants) has played in 6 OF 15 GAMES.
Chris Harris, S- I know. I am as surprised as you that I am putting his name up here. I was first in line for the “Trade for OJ Atogwe” Fan Club. I was in the camp that wanted a Major Wright-Craig Steltz combo at safety. Chris Harris is too slow at times and can be a liability in deep coverage. But he has really anchored the secondary, and has made some huge plays for us. Statisically, he is tied for the ead in INTs (5) and fumble recoveries (2) for all NFC safeties. For those of you who watch who follow the NFC closely, name me three safeties that have had better years than Chris Harris. Of the safeties chosen for the NFC, Nick Collins (Packers) has 3 INTS and 0 fumble recoveries; Antrel Rolle (Giants) has 1 INT and 1 fumble recovery; and Adrian Wilson (Cardinals) has 2 INTs and 0 fumble recoveries. Do I think Chris Harris is one of the best 3 safeties in the NFC? Probably not. But he has had the best year statistically of anyone out there.
Other players who have had good enough years to warrant consideration, especially if the stars back out at the rate they have the past few years are DE Israel Idonije, K Robbie Gould, and ST Corey Graham.
Observations from Jets-Bears
The Bears quieted some (never ALL) critics and moved within a Philly loss or win over Green Bay next week of a first-round bye and the 2nd seed in the NFC Playoffs with a win over the Jets on Sunday, 38-34. Here are a few thoughts from the game:
1) I hope that those few writers who were writing about Desean Jackson being the best returner in the NFL, and not Devin Hester, watched this game. After being flat-out avoided for the first half, Hester finally got one punt return and one kick return. Both he ran back deep into Jets’ territory and set up crucial scores for the Bears. It reminds me of when Barry Bonds was in his prime in San Francisco. Teams would pitch around him 95 percent of the time; but when he got a pitch, he CRUSHED IT. Hester may only get one or two shots per game–and I expect that to get less as we head into the playoffs–but when he gets one, he is heading upfield, making big plays, and changing momentum of games. I saw an article making a case for Devin Hester for MVP; and it sounds preposterous at first glance to make a part-time WR and returner a Most Valuable Player; but no one can argue the fact that he changes games like few players in the league can.
2) I hope those few people still out there that think the Bears made a mistake trading 2 first round picks for Jay Cutler watched this game. Granted, the INT that Lowery ran back for a TD was a terrible decision by Cutler. But the TD pass in the 1st quarter, and the 3 TD passes in the 3rd quarter were All-Pro throws. MVP-type plays. Against a defense with a pretty good secondary (2 past Pro Bowlers in Cromartie and Revis). And, for the record, the Kyle Orton-apologists who think Orton is a game manager who just wins games, he is now watching Tim Tebow run the Broncos’ offense after leading the Broncos to 3 WINS so far this season.
3) Our WRs have arrived. FINALLY. Did anyone ho watched this game actually think this offense FINALLY resembled the Rams ‘greatest show on turf in the second half? And throw in a Matt Forte that is running the ball harder than I have ever seen him run it, our offense looks like one that can score on any defense we will face come playoff time.
4) Julius Peppers has garnered most of the attention on the defense as free-agent acquisitions go, and rightfully so. But Chris Harris has really stepped his game back up the last 2 games; and he always seems to be making the big play that a)turns a game; or b) seals a game. For the most part, he has really solidified the safety position.
5) Alot of people, including myself, have bashed alot of the decisions Lovie Smith has made in his tenure in Chicago, including a few this year. The non-challenge in the Redskins game comes immediately to mind. But he & our coaching staff stayed steady with the game plan, even when we managed to turn a 10-0 lead into a 21-10 deficit. And, on the flip side, we saw what happens hen a coach (Rex Ryan) lets his emotions get the best of him early in the third quarter. I need an explanation on why, as a coach with a 4-point lead and a 4th-and-4 at YOUR OWN 40-yard line, you would run a fake punt with your PUNTER throwing a pass to a part-time WR? If you feel like you can get the 4 yards, keep you offense in, if anything. I think that 4th-down stop was the turning point in the game in the Bears’ favor.
Jets-Bears, 12-26-2010
I know some fans will be clamoring for the Bears to rest some starters and get healthy, having already clinched the NFC North last Monday night. I, for one, could not disagree more. Maybe we won’t catch the Falcons for home-field advantage, but getting a first-round bye would be HUGE. For one, you get the bye week to rest and get healthy. Two, you only need 2 wins to get to the Super Bowl, as opposed to 3. Three, the way the seeding is working out now, we would get the winner of the Eagles-Wildcard#2 at home, while the Falcons would have to play the winner of the Rams-Saints. Which will be the Saints. And, if the Saints were to beat the Falcons, we would host the NFC Championship game. So let us not take for granted that we are in the playoffs and there is nothing to worry about until the playoffs start. There is alot on the line for us the next 2 weeks. With that being said, here are some things I will be watching versus the Jets on Sunday:
1) Will our pass protection hold up against Rex Ryan’s pass rush? The Jets run a 3-4 defense, and have god pass rushers in Calvin Pace, Jason Taylor, and others. And while the Jets have 3 really good cornerbacks, their safeties and LBs are slow in coverage. So if our Offensive Line can keep Jay upright, we should be able to exploit Olsen, Forte, and Taylor in the flats and the middle of the field; much like the Patriots did to the Jets with their TEs and RBs in the butt-whooping they put on the Jets a few weeks back.
2) Jay Cutler versus Revis, Cormartie, and Wilson. The Jets corners play alot of man coverage. They play aggressive and like to jump routes. However, they are not blessed with a ton of pure speed. What will be important is our WRs ability to beat jams at the line and get into their timing routes. I expect to see some 5 to 7-yard drag patterns to take advantage of Hester’s and Knox’s speed. Cutler has done a great job of avoiding INTs, and that will really be tested this weekend.
3) Can our defense stop the big plays? In every Jets game I have watched, anytime they score, it is a long pass play on busted coverage or missed tackles on a short pass that turn into a big gain. And our tackling has looked really poor at times over the last 3 weeks. The Jets are saying that Mark Sanchez is a game-time decision; and while I think he is overrated myself, he would be much more of a threat than the Jets’ backup, Mark Brunell—the only QB in the league not named Brett Favre who qualifies for Social Security.
4) Can our special teams coverage units contain Brad Smith? Devin Hester’s accomplishments last Monday night versus the Vikings overshadowed the fact that, for the 3rd straight game, our coverage units consistently gave up tons of field position. I don’t see too many missed tackles, so it is obvious a lack on discipline in lane assignments. And Brad Smith of the Jets showed last week versus the Steelers that he can take it to the house on any kick. This is the type of game that has the potential to be a low-scoring game, and a big special teams play might be the difference.
I think our defense shuts down the Jets and our offense makes a couple big plays and we win, 21-10.
chicagobearsfans 
Mock 2011 NFL Draft, Bears-Style…
This will look different than most mock drafts you have seen; as I will attempt to show how the draft might play out from the point of view in the Bears’ Draft Room. The first thing we should do is eliminate players from our “big board” who have little chance of being on the board by the time the Bears pick at #29:
DT Marcell Dareus (Alabama); Nick Fairley (Auburn); Corey Liuget (Auburn)
CBs Patrick Peterson (LSU); Prince Amukamara (Nebraska); Jimmy Smith (Colorado)
WRs Julio Jones (Alabama); AJ Green (Georgia)
OLB Von Miller (Texas A&M)
DE Da’Quan Bowers (Clemson); Cameron Jordan (California); Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue); Aldon Smith (Missouri); JJ Watt (Wisconsin)
OTs Anthony Costanzo (Boston College); Tyron Smith (USC)
OG Mike Pouncey (Florida)
QBs Cameron Newton (Auburn); Blaine Gabbert (Missouri)
No matter the mock draft, the consensus is that those 18 guys will, in some order, be picked in the first 28 picks of the draft. The next group of players are guys that are rated to be gone before the Bears pick in some mock drafts, but still available in other mock drafts:
QBs Ryan Mallett (Arkansas); Andy Dalton (TCU); Jake Locker (Washington)
RB Mark Ingram (Alabama)
OTs Gabe Carimi (Wisconsin); Nate Solder (Colorado); Derek Sherrod (Mississippi State)
OG Danny Watkins (Baylor);
DT Muhammad Wilkerson (Temple); Phil Taylor (Baylor)
DEs Adrian Clayborn; Cameron Heyward (Ohio State)
LB Akeem Ayers (UCLA)
CBs Brandon Harris (Miami); Aaron Williams (Texas)
Should these guys be available at #29, you can eliminate the 3 QBs as possibilities. I think you can also strike Ingram off of the list as a potential draft pick of the Bears; a) his injuries would concern me, and b) there are too many other needs on the board. The 2 DTs I think are not options for the Bears—Taylor is more of a 3-4 NT, and Wilkerson as a prospect reminds me too much of Jarron Gilbert for me to not be scared off. Akeem Ayers can be eliminated too, he is more of a 3-4 OLB and doesn’t possess the mobility the Bears look for in a OLB. Which leaves the 4 offensive line prospects, the 2 defensive ends; and the 2 cornerbacks. Of that group, I think the only one that we cannot find equal talent for in the second round would be Solder. The other OTs are probably better suited for RT in the NFL, and Webb did a good job there last season. Watkins might be a possibility; but again, I think equal value can be found in the 2nd or 3rd rounds. Clayborn and Heyward would be good fits; but only if we make the decision to mover Idonije back inside. And the 2 cornerbacks do not offer much value here—especially with guys like Davin House & Ras-I Dowling available in the second round.
In other words, unless Solder is available at #29; the best-case scenario for the Bears would be for just one or two of the top 6 QBs (Dalton, Ponder, Locker, or Mallett) to still be on the board at pick #29. Then, you can have a team like the 49ers, Vikings, Cardinals, etc. looking to trade back up into the 1st round, and you can drop down to the mid-second round, still get the same value at a position of need, and add an additional 3rd or 4th-round pick—which will give great value in this draft at WR, LB, and DB. Especially if only one or two of those QBs are left by the 29th pick—teams will be extra desperate to come up and land one of those guys.
So, in my perfect dream world, here is how the Bears Draft would play out (I will be realistic as to which guys might still be available at those picks)—
Round 1, Pick #29: Trade with 49ers…49ers receive Bears 1st Round Pick (#29 Overall); Bears receive 49ers 2nd Round Pick (#45 Overall) and 49ers 3rd Round Pick (#76) Overall.
Round 2, Pick #45 (From 49ers): Benjamin Ijalana, OG/OT, Villanova – not a big fan of small-school prospects, but he wowed scouts at the Senior Bowl and had a tremendous Pro Day. He can also play 3 spots along the offensive line, something our management covets in a O-line prospect. Received a first-round grade in some scouting websites.
2nd Choice: Orlando Franklin, OG/OT, Miami – He is big; he is nasty, and he can also play any spot across the line.
3rd Choice: Rodney Hudson, OG/C, Florida State – He is a little smaller than the Bears would like; but he is a guy that can step in right away in guard, and take over for Kreutz at center for the next decade.
Round 2, Pick #62: Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia – He is a big (6’2″, 200), physical corner who is a perfect fit for a cover-2 scheme. Would have been a first-rounder had he come out last season; but had a down year in 2010. DT and WR might be a more pressing need than CB, but this would be BY FAR the best payer available on the board at this point.
2nd Choice: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State – Built much like Dowling; maybe not as physical, but faster. He has been rising on draft boards since all post-season long. On tape, looks like Charles Tillman’s clone.
3rd Choice: James Carpenter, OT, Alabama. It would not be my preference to go o-line with both of the first 2 picks; but Carpenter has been rising up draft boards and looks like he could be a future star at OT.
Round 3, Pick #76 (from 49ers): Greg Little, WR, North Carolina – a converted RB who plays WR, he is at his best when playing underneath and running after the catch. Alot like Anquan Boldin or an old Cutler ex-teammate, Brandon Marshall. He does have some reported attitude issues. But if his head is on right, he could be a steal.
2nd Choice: Terrell McClain, DT, USF – The Bears have shown alot of interest in this guy; haven’t seen too much of him, and I personally like Drake Nevis better; but you know if the Bears like him, they will have no problem taking him here.
3rd Choice: DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma – definitely not a need pick, but he is big, catches out of the backfield well, ran a 4.3 40 at his Pro Day, and would be a good change-of-pace back for Forte, and insurance if Forte cannot be re-signed.
Round 3, Pick #93: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU – His size does not make him an immediate candidate to be an every-down player, but has great in-the-trench instincts, great motor, and always stepped up his play against the big-time teams and players. The closest thing to 2006 Tommie Harris in this draft.
2nd Choice: Tandon Doss, WR, Indiana – He should be a really good underneath, possession-type WR for Cutler.
3rd Choice: Taiwan Jones, RB, Eastern Washington- 4.29, That is all.
Round 4, Pick #127: Chris Conte, S, California – A true FS with range; also adds depth and talent for special teams with the possibility of Danieal Manning, Bullocks, and Steltz not being back.
2nd Choice: Mario Harvey, LB, Marshall – Here is a guy with size (), speed (), and hits like a truck. Maybe an option at SLB until Urlacher retires.
3rd Choice: Jah Reid, OT/OG, UCF – Here is another of those offensive linemen who can play multiple positions. Maybe worth a look here at the end of the 4th round.
5th Round, Pick #160: Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU – Big as a house; battle tested. Plus, you know how Angelo loves to draft a) players from the SEC; and b) Multiple players from the same school (Nevis).
2nd Choice: DeMarcus Love, OG/OT, Arkansas – See Above. A Big guy from the SEC, plus he plays multiple positions.
3rd Choice: Chris L Rucker, CB/FS, Michigan State – A guy who had trouble staying healthy and out of trouble in Lansing; but has first-round size and talent.
6th Round: Adrian Moten, OLB, Maryland – Could contribute on special teams and add LB depth.
2nd Choice: Doug Hogue, OLB, Syracuse Same as above.
3rd Choice: Alex Linnenkohl, C, Oregon State – Good late-round value and possible heir-apparent to Olin Kreutz.
So if the draft plays out the way I hope, here would be the Bears’ draft haul:
Benjamin Ijalana, OT/OG, Villanova
Ras-I Dowling, CB, Virginia
Greg Little, WR, North Carolina
Drake Nevis, DT, LSU
Chris Conte, S, California
Joseph Barksdale, OT, LSU
Adrian Moten, LB, Maryland
The only other thing I would have liked to have come out of this draft with would be maybe a change-of-pace back to replace Chester Taylor; and maybe another DE for depth. But I could see 3 immediate starters, and 5 eventual starters out of this group.
April 26, 2011 | Categories: 2011 Draft | Tags: bears, bears commentary, bears fan, bears running backs, bears special teams, benjamin ijalana, Brian Urlacher, Chester Taylor, chicago bears fan, chris conte, Cutler, drake nevis, ESPN, football bears, greg little, Jay Cutler, Lovie Smith, matt forte, Mike Martz, Mike Tice, nfl, nfl bears, nfl chicago bears, Olin Kruetz, Ras I Dowling, Urlacher | Leave a comment